Look for Matt Kemp to go flying up draft boards this winter.

1. Albert Pujols-1B   StL

Pujols should be #1 no matter what Mozeliak and the Cardinals do this winter.

2. Alex Rodriguez-3B NYY

That ballpark makes me feel like A-Rod is back in Texas.

3. Hanley Ramirez-SS  Fla

If Hanley falls past 3 you are getting a steal.

4. Ryan Braun-OF Mil

Braun goes 32-114-20-113-.320 in an off year.  Ridiculous.  He hits 45 bombs next year.

5. Chase Utley-2B Phi

Great park, lineup and a scarce position.  More of the same for Chut.

6. Matt Kemp-OF  LAD

Feels weird putting him this high but just imagine where his numbers would be hitting somewhere in the middle of the lineup all year long. 

7. Tim Lincecum-SP  SF

Tough to take a pitcher this early, but its Lincecum.  Its awesome to own him.

8. Miguel Cabrera-1B  Det

Miggy’s going to be extremely undervalued in 2010.

9. Ian Kinsler-2B  Tex

This is not too early for Kinsler.  He’s a 30-30 middle infielder who will see his average go up into the .280s with some better luck.

10. Mark Teixeira-1B NYY

This doesn’t appear to be the year hung up at the end of the draft.  Lots of options here.

Honorable Mention:

Carl Crawford–you can take him but if you do you obviously haven’t drafted him in the 1st round before.

Prince Fielder–I don’t like players coming off career seasons.

Joe Mauer–Call me a skeptic.  I thought Mauer was too early years before in the 5th round.  Mauer still isnt a 1st rounder to me.

David Wright–Will be undervalued but last years quirky season (extremely lucky; few homers; concussed) has me a bit worried.

Mark Reynolds–Never pay for a career year.  Never.

James Loney was out.

Or so we thought.

The 9th inning was a complete nightmare and exposed the Cardinals shaky bullpen in just a few minutes.  The task at hand just got significantly more difficult as the Cardinals fly east and attempt to extend the series to Sunday.

I am realistic.  The Cardinals chances of winning the series are slim.  However, I remember the 2002 Division Series out in Arizona.  Randy Johnson.  Curt Schilling.  Tough to beat in a short series.  The Cardinals roughed up Johnson in Game 1 and then won in a pitcher’s duel in Game 2 over Schilling.  Does this sound familiar?  As a Cardinals fan, I really felt the pressure to win the series in 3 games because of how tough Johnson and Schilling would be to beat again.

The Dodgers have to feel that pressure.  And if not, they will Sunday.

I look for the Cardinals to win game 3 rather easily behind Joel Pineiro (2.76 ERA at Busch), who has had success against LA this season (8 ip, 1 ER).  LA counters with below average starter Vicente Padilla.

TLR should come back with Carpenter on short rest Sunday and if they happen to still be alive heading back west, Adam Wainwright will be on regular rest for the all or nothing deciding Game 5.

Obviously, the Dodgers do not want that to be the case.

During the regular season, Chris Carpenter gave up 4 or more runs just 3 times.  In his 3 starts following the 4 or more earnies, he compiled a 1.23 ERA and the Cardinals won all 3 games.  Adam Wainwright’s outing at Chavez Ravine yesterday speaks for itself and I see him having a similar game out in LA on Tuesday.

If he gets the chance.

 

Here are my playoff picks.  I made them Tuesday.

Colorado over Philadelphia in 5.

St. Louis over Los Angeles in 4.

New York over Minnesota in 4.

Anaheim over Boston in 5.

NLCS

St. Louis over Colorado in 7.

ALCS

Anaheim over New York in 6.

World Series

Anaheim over St. Louis in 6.

The Phillies are officially in the post-season and I can’t wait for the media attention concerning Brad Lidge’s role in October.  After the B-Man came in to protect a SEVEN RUN LEAD, WITH 2 OUTS, AND NO ONE ON BASE on Wednesday, his ERA dropped to a pristine 7.34 in 57.2 innings.  He makes Rocky Biddle and Shawn Chacon seem competent.  Lidge is blowing away Chacon’s 35 save, 7.11 ERA, 1.94 WHIP season in 2004 in terms of awfulness.  Forget the talk of Lidge’s role out of the pen come next week, this guy shouldn’t even make the post-season roster.  He obviously cannot close out games in the 9th.  He is not going to all of the sudden become magical in the 7th and 8th either.  So if he cannot be trusted in a set up role for your ballclub, what does he bring to the table out of the bullpen?  He is not a long guy and you don’t have time in the playoffs to work on “confidence” and “mechanics”.

I remember seeing him in the 2004 playoffs and thinking the Cardinals couldn’t score off of him if he threw 10 innings in one game of relief.  Last season, he put together arguably the best run by a closer in history.  This year?  He cannot be used with any game on the line.  This goes without saying, but Ryan Madson has to be the finisher in the 9th and perhaps the 8th and 9th.

I hope the NL playoffs comes down to a Lidge-Pujols matchup with the series on the line.  Charlie Manuel has done great things in Philadelphia but if he lets that happen he should check job postings in Houston and Cleveland.

Since AK’s 0-6 performance on 9/9, he has hit in 7 straight producing 7 rbis and 7 runs over that span (.548 batting average). His average has risen to .291 to go along with a solid 11 homers and 19 steals on the season. For those of you who ignored the middle infield position, or drafted goats such as JJ Hardy or Mike Aviles, he has been a nice little find here in 2009. The swiss army knife of position eligibility doesn’t hurt either, especially at this point in the season when you are just looking for warm bodies. You have to ride out the hot hand and hope AK can stay en fuego for 14 more days.

 

Turning the page into September, its time to get serious about picking MVP winners and such.  Here are JV’s selections.

American League Cy Young

1. Zack Greinke, KC

190.1 IP, 13-8, 202 K, 40 BB, 1.08 WHIP, 2.32 ERA

Greinke catapulted ahead of the AL Cy Young pack with a two start week that featured a 1 hit shutout and a career high 15 strikeout game.  Now at 13 victories, the Cy is Greink’s to lose.  If he can find a way to 16 wins, he is a lock to bring home the hardware.

2. Justin Verlander, DET

189 IP, 15-7, 215 K, 53 BB, 1.17 WHIP, 3.38 ERA

Verlander is here because of the high win and strikeout totals.  He really has been great every time out and has been the main reason why Detroit is in a position to head back to the post-season.  Verlander will probably need to win 20 to win the award.  However, could you really give the Cy Young to Verlander when Greinke’s ERA is a full run better?

3. Felix Hernandez, SEA

185.1 IP, 13-5, 179 K, 55 BB, 1.18 WHIP, 2.77 ERA

It seems like we have been waiting forever, but King Felix has finally put it all together in 2009.  If he can get the ERA down in the 2.5 range and get to 18 wins, he could edge out Greinke.

apologies to:  CC Sabathia (high ERA), Roy Halladay (struggled since trade deadline), Josh Beckett (not sure why he was in the conversation anyway)

National League Cy Young

1. Tim Lincecum, SF

193.1 IP, 13-4, 222 K, 54 BB, 1.03 WHIP, 2.33 ERA

I still put Lincecum ahead of the rest because of the K’s and WHIP.  Just ridiculous.  He may need to win 17 to hang on, but if the season ended today, i would vote Tim.

2. Adam Wainwright, StL

193 IP, 16-7, 164 K, 57 BB, 1.20 WHIP, 2.47 ERA

Waino has been the most consistent starter in baseball and comes in at #2 because of it.  He has thrown 6 or more innings in 26 straight starts.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 13 straight.  He has allowed 0 or 1 earned run in exactly half (14) of his 28 starts.  He needs to win 20 games and keep the ERA in the mid to high 2’s to be named the Cy.

3. Dan Haren, Ari

188 IP, 13-8, 180 K, 29 BB, 0.94 WHIP, 2.78 WHIP

One could argue that Haren has been the best pitcher this season because of the K:BB ratio alone.  Like Greinke, he has found a way to win 13 games on a horrible team and voters should look past that when filling out their ballots.  Haren probably needs to win 4 more games and have those in front of him falter to be named the winner.

Apologies to:  Chris Carpenter (the 6 missed starts with injuries has to be a factor here), Javier Vazquez (11 wins hurts), Matt Cain (hasn’t won in last 7 starts)

American League MVP

1. Joe Mauer, MIN

 .367 BA/.435 OBP/.608 SLG/

25 HR, 79 RBI, 77 R

Even with missing four weeks at the beginning of the season, Mauer is ahead of a flawed group for AL MVP.  The power spike to go along with an unreal BA and the demanding position he plays makes this his to lose.  Its not really that close either.

2. Miguel Cabrera, DET

.335 BA/.399 OBP/.565 SLG

27 HR, 82 RBI, 77 R

I’m not real sure why he hasn’t been getting more publicity.  Detroit is in the race and his numbers have been there all season.  I’m predicting a huge September that will get his name thrown out there some more.

3. Kendry Morales, LAA

.311 BA/.355 OBP/.593 SLG

30 HR, 94 RBI, 71 R

This may be a bit high for Morales, but I feel that credit should be given where credit is due.  With the injuries and scuffling this team has been through, Morales has been the one constant.  His break out season deserves some recognition, especially the position he has put the Angels in.

apologies to:  Mark Teixeira (.283 BA isn’t going to cut it), Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano (they just haven’t done enough), Michael Young (not really a candidate just pointing out the great year that he has had), Aaron Hill and Adam Lind (these are not your older brother’s Jays)

National League MVP

1. Albert Pujols, StL

.320 BA/.444 OBP/.669 SLG

41 HR, 110 RBI, 102 R

Has been the front runner all season and has the award all but wrapped up.

2. Hanley Ramirez, FLA

.359 BA/.422 OBP/.562 SLG

19 HR, 85 RBI, 82 R

Hanley is having an unworldly season and despite Pujols’s dominance, dare I say that Hanley has a chance?  A monster September and Florida making the post-season would be a scenario where Han-Ram wins his first MVP award.  It also helps that he plays shortstop.

3. Prince Fielder, MIL

.300 BA/.412 OBP/.594 SLG

36 HR, 119 RBI, 80 R

Prince has begun the trend of on year, off year in his short career.  He is a distant third for the award and I don’t envision the possibility of him even finishing second.  With a mediocre September, he could even finish outside the top 5.

apologies to:  Mark Reynolds (bad team and blah BA), Matt Kemp (imagine the season he would have if he would hit higher in the order), Ryan Braun (has been steady and solid but nothing amazing), Chase Utley and Ryan Howard (just haven’t done enough), Troy Tulowitzki (has turned it up and has the Rox ready for the stretch run)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Double I is back.  Hunter was having a career year until his season was derailed for 5 weeks on July 7th with a strained adductor muscle.  Hunter is hitting .307 with 17 homers 67 rbi 57 R and 13 SB in only 296 AB for the year.  Hopefully his time on the shelf didn’t erase your memories of Torii’s robust 2009.  He’s back just in time to be a very solid No. 3 outfielder in mixed leagues and have a say in who wins your league championship.  But fantasy owners beware, he has been known to suppress the abilities of those around him.

 

Well J.A. just got finished dusting off the Colorado Rockies.  His reward?  Probably a trip to the bullpen so the Phillies can add PEDRO MARTINEZ to the rotation.  Happ has struggled with command at times here in his rookie season, but has shown consistency as a youngster, yielding more than 3 earned just 3 times in 13 starts.    His last 8 starts have been especially effective as he has completed 58 innings and struck out 45 to only 9 walks.  Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee are not leaving the rotation.  Joe Blanton has had a very quiet awesome season and is the only right hander in the starting staff.  He is a lock to stay as well.  Jaime Moyer is a dinosaur with a 5.55 ERA.  I realize he is chasing Cy Young in career wins, but he cannot hold Happy’s pitch chart.

Happ 115 IP, 86 K, 37 BB, 1.12 WHIP, 2.72 ERA, .221 BAA

Moyer 118.1 IP, 68 K, 37 BB, 1.47 WHIP, 5.55 ERA, .293 BAA

Happ is not a garden variety lefty.  I’m thinking of recent blue chip lefties that have been called up in the last few years.  Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw, and Jon Lester….they have all fared pretty well.  I believe he has that pedigree.  He reminds me of a young Mark Mulder, sans the grounders.  He is not a big strikeout guy and rarely throws the hammer.  He does pitch in a treacherous homer happy park and is a fly ball guy.  Regardless, we are talking about a guy that should throw the 4th playoff game for the Fightins’ this year.  Its not close either.

But if I had to guess, I would say there is a 1% chance Happ remains in the rotation and both Pedro and Moyer are in it.

The Bottom Line:

1. Managers/GMs are stupid

2. The Phillies should not have signed Pedro

American League
East	W	L	Pct	GB	Home	Road	East	Cent	West	Streak	L10
New York Yankees	62	39	.614	–	35-17	27-22	20-18	19-5	13-8	Won 1	8-2
Boston Red Sox	59	42	.584	3.0	35-17	24-25	25-12	13-5	10-18	Won 1	4-6
Tampa Bay Rays	55	47	.539	7.5	31-17	24-30	21-16	14-14	7-12	Lost 1	4-6
Toronto Blue Jays	49	53	.480	13.5	29-23	20-30	12-22	19-11	11-9	Lost 2	4-6
Baltimore Orioles	44	57	.436	18.0	28-23	16-34	14-24	11-9	8-17	Won 2	3-7

The Yanks appear to have another vintage squad of the oughts.  Playoff bound, but not enough to get it done in October.  Robinson Cano has to be one of the most unheralded superstars at the second base position.  If he does it for 10 more years, the sky is the limit in that ballpark…I seriously can’t get enough of Jon Lester.  He has no hit stuff every time and he is fun to watch…If Tampa has any hopes of getting back to post-season play, they need to have a couple awesome months from James Shields.  I see a pitcher who has nearly the same skill set as he did in 07 and 08 but has failed to win in any of his last 6 starts.  He is a great buy low candidate…Doc Halladay appears to being staying put and I believe its a good move.  I can’t even imagine opening day in Toronto next season without him toeing the slab.  Scott Downs has struggled since returning from the DL and is in jeopardy to losing his closer role to Jason Frasor…Chris Tillman’s debut was one to forget, however the other two pieces of the Erik Bedard trade (Adam Jones, George Sherrill) have been more than excellent.  Jim Johnson should close out games for Baltimore following the trade of Sherrill.

 

Central	W	L	Pct	GB	Home	Road	East	Cent	West	Streak	L10
Detroit Tigers	53	47	.530	–	31-16	22-31	4-13	22-16	17-10	Won 1	5-5
Minnesota Twins	52	50	.510	2.0	31-20	21-30	6-19	20-12	14-13	Won 4	5-5
Chicago White Sox	51	51	.500	3.0	27-23	24-28	10-11	23-25	7-9	Lost 3	3-7
Cleveland Indians	42	60	.412	12.0	20-28	22-32	14-15	16-23	7-9	Lost 2	6-4
Kansas City Royals	40	61	.396	13.5	23-32	17-29	10-18	17-22	5-11	Lost 2	3-7

Justin Verlander has been so unreal this season that its hard to believe.  He will push for 280 k’s.  Curtis Granderson will crush his career high in homers this season but his BA (.259) pales in comparison to his last two seasons.  I hate when managers lead off guys that can run but are better suited for the middle of the order (Kinsler, Sizemore, Soriano, Hanley Ramirez in past years)…The Twins are in serious trouble with Kevin Slowey calling it a season.  Their rotation went from potentially frisky to unbelievably awful in a few months.  They should be sellers, but honestly who would you sell?…The ChiSox had a rough weekend in Detroit and may have put them sliding on the slippery slope.  There just isn’t a lot to like here…Cleveland has officially called it a season.  Expect Jhonny Peralta and Victor Martinez to go in the next two days…I thought Luke Hochevar had turned the corner with his last few outings.  But he proved to me that its always what have you done for me lately.  Mixed leaguers, run away.  Do not walk.  Wow.  This division is horrible.

 

West	W	L	Pct	GB	Home	Road	East	Cent	West	Streak	L10
Los Angeles Angels	60	40	.600	–	32-20	28-20	17-9	15-10	14-17	Won 2	8-2
Texas Rangers	56	43	.566	3.5	34-20	22-23	16-12	13-14	18-8	Lost 1	8-2
Seattle Mariners	53	48	.525	7.5	27-22	26-26	14-10	12-16	16-15	Won 2	5-5
Oakland Athletics	43	58	.426	17.5	22-25	21-33	17-18	12-10	9-17	Lost 1	4-6

Speaking of horrible divisions, lets get into the roundup of the AL West.  Kendry Morales is doing his best Vladimir Guerrero impression.  I just looked up and Anaheim is 20 games over.  Wow.  Vlad has 396 career jacks and looks like he will have a tough time getting to 400…  The Rangers are somehow hanging around with their classic jacksmoke rotation.  But wait, the entire division is too…Seattle has made a great decision on selling.  Jarrod Washburn is a professional and I think he is a good back end starter.  But just remember when you thought Nick Blackburn was the second coming six weeks ago.  Washburn isn’t that much of a difference…Billy Beane does it again with the Matt Holliday trade.  Brett Wallace has to play in the American League.

Despite the division races being close heading into August.  I see no changes here.  We will have the same four teams in the playoffs and New York and Boston will duke it out in the ALCS just like they did in 2003 and 2004.  Tampa Bay is easily the league’s third best team and will not see the playoffs.  The AL doesn’t even sniff how good it was in any of the past 5 seasons.

 

National League
East	W	L	Pct	GB	Home	Road	East	Cent	West	Streak	L10
Philadelphia Phillies	58	41	.586	–	27-25	31-16	25-15	15-6	12-8	Lost 1	7-3
Florida Marlins	53	48	.525	6.0	27-24	26-24	21-13	8-14	14-13	Won 3	7-3
Atlanta Braves	51	50	.505	8.0	27-23	24-27	19-15	15-16	10-11	Lost 2	6-4
New York Mets	49	51	.490	9.5	28-20	21-31	20-20	16-13	8-8	Won 5	6-4
Washington Nationals	32	70	.314	27.5	20-33	12-37	10-32	8-17	7-10	Lost 2	6-4

There is no doubt that Philadelphia improved immensely with the acquisition of Cliff Lee.  However, this is a huge stepdown from Halladay.  Philadelphia’s ace is another lefty and back end starters J.A. Happ and Jaime Moyer are also southpaws.  This may not seem like a huge ordeal but a potential matchup with Chicago or St. Louis in the post-season would be a downer.  Both are very right hand heavy and crush lefties.  Of course, Philly has all the good left handed hitting.  Their bigger issue may be the fact that Brad Lidge will be closing out playoff games.  I know he was historically unreal last year but sometimes you just gotta cut your losses…Hanley Ramirez appears to be the biggest threat from Albert Pujols winning the triple crown.  He should win the batting title and keep AP from winning all three.  When Matt Lindstrom returns from the DL, he should not be pitching in high pressure situations…I feel the Braves have a little friskiness going but now Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez have decided to struggle and give away leads.  Atlanta knows that feeling all too well in recent years…S.O.S. Carlos Beltran.  Ok, when was Jose Reyes due back?  Washington has a solid 10 road victories and an empty new ballpark.

 

Central	W	L	Pct	GB	Home	Road	East	Cent	West	Streak	L10
Chicago Cubs	54	46	.540	–	33-19	21-27	10-7	30-22	8-9	Won 2	7-3
St. Louis Cardinals	56	48	.538	–	29-21	27-27	12-10	25-22	10-10	Won 3	5-5
Milwaukee Brewers	51	51	.500	4.0	27-26	24-25	14-12	26-19	6-10	Won 2	4-6
Houston Astros	51	51	.500	4.0	28-25	23-26	6-6	21-27	18-9	Lost 2	5-5
Cincinnati Reds	45	56	.446	9.5	23-25	22-31	10-14	23-23	6-10	Lost 3	1-9
Pittsburgh Pirates	43	58	.426	11.5	26-19	17-39	14-13	14-26	7-12	Lost 5	3-7

The Cardinals struck gold with the import of Matt Holliday and the Cubs appear to be hitting their stride with the return of Aramis Ramirez.  These two are huge rivals and just may finally meet in October.  That would be awesome…Milwaukee really needed Cliff Lee and Houston really needed Roy Oswalt to avoid the shelf.  Both had the wrong answer and are non contenders the rest of the way…Cincinnati continues to be a major disappointment.  They should sell but all their export candidates have high salaries…Pittsburgh made a few trades and judging from their history probably did not get any better.  Prospect Tim Alderson is a little exciting though (Sanchez trade) .

 

West	W	L	Pct	GB	Home	Road	East	Cent	West	Streak	L10
Los Angeles Dodgers	62	39	.614	–	34-17	28-22	13-8	10-10	30-12	Lost 4	5-5
San Francisco Giants	55	46	.545	7.0	34-15	21-31	13-11	14-10	19-19	Won 3	5-5
Colorado Rockies	54	47	.535	8.0	27-21	27-26	9-11	14-8	20-24	Lost 3	5-5
Arizona Diamondbacks	44	58	.431	18.5	24-33	20-25	10-10	11-15	18-23	Won 1	5-5
San Diego Padres	41	62	.398	22.0	24-26	17-36	5-11	11-12	20-29	Won 3	4-6

Is it just me or did the Dodgers peak way too early?  Chad Billingsley seems to be a shadow of his earlier season self.  Thank God for Clayton Kershaw.  This team really needs Jonathan Broxton to stay healthy…Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko are not the answer for San Francisco.  The Giants cannot lose any of Lincecum or Cain’s starts for the rest of the year…I am tired of hearing about how great Marquis, De La Rosa, Hammel and Cook have been.  It is boring and not built to last into October…Arizona didn’t get nearly for Felipe Lopez what Pittsburgh got for Freddy Sanchez.  Sometimes its all about who is traded first or how close it is to the deadline…San Diego phenom Mat Latos may have lost that second t from his name, but hasn’t lost either of his last two despite playing for the Fathers.  He looks legit…

The Dodgers and Phils are locks and I can’t imagine the NL playoffs without the 2009 Cardinals.  They appear to have that swagger again.  I expect the Cubs to be the other playoff team and I don’t think its that close.  The Cardinals matchup much better with LA than Philly so that is something to keep in mind.

Sorry for so few posts over the last couple weeks.  I was out of town and unavailiable.  I did however witness Ryan Howard’s 200th career homer at Land Shark Stadium with 459 other people.  On to business…

 

The MLB trade deadline is vastly approaching.  That also means your fantasy league’s trade deadline is on the horizon.  Here are some thoughts I have bouncing around in my head.

Randy Wolf -despite a paltry 4-4 record, Wolf has been superb playing for Mannywood.  He sports a 3.51 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and has a strong 3:1 K:BB ratio.  However, his best ERA and WHIP since 2004 is 4.30 and 1.33.  I’m a big believer in course correction and believe that he will get to about 10 wins, but his ratios will balloon.

J.J. Hardy -has averaged 25 homers and a .280 average in the last two seasons.  He currently sits at 11 bombs and .226.  Pitch a low ball offer to a frustrated owner.  J.J. will make you hardy.

Dan Haren -I know Haren perennially struggles in the 2nd half.  I’ve read about it.  I’ve known it.  However, he is a much better pitcher now than he has ever been.  He K’s 7.6 batters for every one walk.  His WHIP sits at 0.80.  Yeah he pitches in a launching pad and maybe his ratios get to 2.80 and 1.00 by the end of the year.  Even so, I am not dealing him unless I am blown away.  And by blown away I mean a player in the Mark Teixeira fold.

Johnathan Broxton -Broxton has pitched three days in a row, recorded saves in all three, and has been dominant in doing so.  These outings have given fantasy baller’s false hope that the toe will no longer be an issue.  The Dodgers are cruising in the West and Broxton will hit the DL in the coming weeks.  Trade him now at peak value and pick up Ramon Troncoso in the meantime.

Adrian Gonzalez- Gonzo mashed 20 homers the first two months and has done diddly since.  If you have stuck it out with him up to this point, ride the wave home.  He will get hot again and finish with 40 homers.  He is a definite hold.

Derek Lowe- Lowe’s ERAs over the past 4 seasons: 3.61, 3.63, 3.89 and a pristine 3.24 last year.  His WHIPs: 1.25, 1.27, 1.27, and a sparkling 1.13 last year.  He has been an underrated awful in 2009 and I see no reason why he will turn it around.  He’s on pace to strikeout just over 100 hitters after averaging over 140 in the past 4.  He may be worth a $1 bid next year, but I’m avoiding like the plague for the rest of 2009.

Jon Lester -Lester has turned into Steve Carlton over the last two months and I see no reason why it won’t continue.  He is the best left handed pitcher in the AL and has made a huge spike in the K numbers this year.  He has an outside shot at 250 K’s after sitting down a solid 152 in 210 innings last season.  The post-season innings from last year  have not hurt him and feel more than comfortable trotting him out there as your ace for now and beyond.

Adam Wainwright -Like Lester, Waino has turned into more of a punch-out pitcher in 2009.  At his current rate he will rip thru the magical 200 mark while dragging the ERA and WHIP south.  He is the picture perfect #2 pitcher for any fantasy or major league pitching staff.

George Sherrill -with the deadline approaching, he will inevitably be on the move.  Jim Johnson is the handcuff to have here.  Other closers that have a chance of being dealt are Chad Qualls and Matt Capps.  And to a lesser extent Francisco Cordero and Huston Street.  Plan accordingly.

Shane Victorino- I have really felt like Victorino has had a piss-poor year.  His on pace for less than 30 steals and about 10 homers.  He has eclipsed both those numbers in 2007 and 2008.  His average has been great but he hasn’t done much else.  I’m rooting for a blah second half so I can snag him cheap next year.

Brandon Wood- I’m starting to really hate the Angels.  This guy has nothing left to prove at Salt Lake as he has been a man among boys there for a few years.  He can play multiple positions and is currently being blocked by slaps like Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis.  Vlad Guerrero and Torii Hunter are currently on the shelf and he still can’t crack the lineup.  Either play this guy every day or trade him for Roy Halladay.  Its not a no brainer on which to do, but how could you do neither????

 One of the nuances of fantasy baseball is knowing the ballparks.  I feel like each ballpark has a reputation of favoring the hitters, favoring the pitchers, or being neutral.  Its nice to take a look at the stadium factors once in a while just to see if they are living up to their reputation.  The amazing thing about stadiums is that, like players, they can have up and down seasons.  I went back and looked at the factors for 2007, 2008, and the first half of 2009.  Each stadium has a ranking between 1 and 30, with 1 being the best for the hitters and 30 being the best for the pitchers.  I took each ranking in those 3 seasons in both runs scored and homeruns.  I then combined their homeruns and runs scored rank to give it a cumulative ranking.  An equal emphasis is placed on homeruns and runs scored in the cumulative ranking.

 

**I did not include Nationals Park or the two New York Stadiums in the cumulative rankings because they have not been in existence for 3 years.  Here are the ranks.

Rank          Standium and City	Runs (’07/’08/’09)	Homeruns (’07/’08/’09)
1.  Coors Field (Denver, Colorado)	3/3/2	5/3/14
2.  Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona)	5/2/1	11/10/2
3.  Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio)	7/7/12	2/4/8
4.  Camden Yards (Baltimore, Maryland)	6/10/16	3/1/3
5.  Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois)	2/8/7	8/7/10
6.  U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago, Illinois)	9/4/24	4/2/7
7.  Ball Park at Arlington (Arlington, Texas)	18/1/8	17/5/15
8.  Comerica Park (Detroit, Michigan)	12/6/10	9/6/18
9.  Citizens Bank (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)	13/15/13	1/11/11
10. Land Shark Stadium (Miami, Florida)	10/20/5	15/27/6
11. Angel Stadium (Anaheim, California)	8/16/13	22/17/4
12. Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts)	1/5/15	23/26/17
13. Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario)	21/18/20	7/18/13
14. Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas)	25/14/26	14/8/9
15. AT&T Field (San Francisco, California)	17/11/9	24/13/24
16. Miller Park (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)	15/22/28	10/22/16
17. Metrodome (Minneapolis, Minnesota)	28/28/3	27/21/5
18. Turner Field (Atlanta, Georgia)	24/9/23	19/12/28
19. Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Florida)	26/19/11	18/25/19
20. Safeco Field (Seattle, Washington)	19/24/22	16/20/20
21. Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio)	4/17/27	12/28/29
22. Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)	14/25/4	20/29/23
23. Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, California)	11/29/29	13/24/21
24. PNC Park (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)	20/27/18	26/23/22
25. Oakland Coliseum (Oakland, California)	29/26/19	25/14/25
26. Busch Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri)	22/23/21	28/19/27
27. Petco Park (San Diego, California)	30/30/30	29/30/30
NR  Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.)	x/13/17	x/16/26
NR  Citi Field (New York, New York)	x/x/25	x/x/12
NR  Yankee Stadium (New York, New York)	x/x/6	x/x/1

OBSERVATIONS

*Petco Park is a pitcher’s paradise in all aspects.  They have ranked dead last in both homeruns and runs for the last three seasons, other than in 2007 in homeruns where they came in at 29.  The stadium that was harder to homer in?  Try the gNats old stadium.  R.I.P. RFK.

 *I was beginning to believe that Coors Field wasn’t as much of a hitter’s haven as it was in the past.  It is coming back down to Earth, but it is still the top park to hit in overall.

 *Detroit’s Comerica Park has had this reputation of being a great place to pitch in.  Looking at the rankings, it is a solid hitters park.

*Old Enron has to be the quirkiest park in the majors with its Crawford Boxes and Tal’s Hill out in center.  The Juice Box may be seen as hitter’s paradise, but even with the short porches and above average home run rates, it is more or less neutral.

 *I had always thought that the new Busch Stadium slightly favored the pitchers.  What I did not realize is that the favoritism is anything but slight.  Imagine if the new Busch was built like Cincinnati or Philadelphia’s new park and then imagine Albert Pujols hitting in it.

 *The Metrodome used to be nicknamed the “Homerdome”.  It has been falsely named in year’s past but is having a tremendous year for hitters.

 *The new Yankee Stadium is the easiest place to homer in the big leagues and it is not close.  I scratched my head looking at Citi Field’s rankings.  I would imagine if we took a look at these three year’s from now that it would be in the mid to upper 20s in homers as well as runs.

 *Progressive Field is trending heavily towards the pitchers.  Perhaps they made some changes to the outfield walls and are trying to be, well, progressive.

 *Tropicana Field is a very underrated pitcher’s park.  Rogers Centre is a very overrated hitter’s park.

 *I always felt like the Big A in Anaheim was a great place for pitchers.  Perhaps that was because they always have very good pitching staffs.  Looking at the numbers, it tends to favor hitters slightly and is becoming more of a hitters park by the season.

 *Land Shark Stadium seems to change ranks like it changes names.  I always felt in was more pitcher friendly.  Perhaps balls travel further in empty stadiums.