MVP:  Nelson Cruz (a huge season is in store)

Cy Young:  Felix Hernandez (Verducci Effect be damned)

Breakout (Stick):  Howie Kendrick (It is all up to Coach Scoscia playing him thru an early slump)

Breakout (Arm):  Brett Anderson (his peripherals scream Ace In Waiting)

Comeback (Hitter):  Vladimir Guerrero (he’ll remember how to rake when he arrives at The Ballpark)

Comeback (Pitcher)  Ervin Santana (top 15 upside with a clean bill of health)

Bust (Hitter):  Josh Hamilton (I just don’t see another 2008 in his future)

Bust (Arm):  David Aardsma (His walks are too high and see my deep sleeper)

I still believe in………Justin Duchscherer.

I am not worried about………Andrew Bailey.

The deep sleeper I am targeting……..Brandon League.

Stay Far Away From……..Brian Fuentes.

Temper Your Expectations……Chone Figgins.

Oldie but a Goodie………Bobby Abreu.

Enjoy the Explosion…………Franklin Gutierrez.

Now or Never………….Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Regression is Likely………..Michael Young.

Pay the Extra Buck……….Kurt Suzuki.

MVP:  Alex Rodriguez (a full healthy season in that bandbox has to leave you salivating)

Cy Young:  Jon Lester (the best defense in baseball will help the ERA enough.  this year he won’t struggle out of the gate)

Breakout (Stick):  BJ Upton (this is the year the power is added to the steals.  think 25/40)

Breakout (Arm):  David Price (his 2nd full year screams of it)

Comeback Hitter:  Adrian Beltre (getting out of the Pacific Northwest will work wonders)

Comeback Pitcher:  Daisuke Matsuzaka (i’m really buying into their defense helping their luck)

Bust Hitter:  Brian Roberts (his value has always been tied to the steals and i don’t think he reaches more than 25 in 2010)

Bust Pitcher:  James Shields (has regressed mightily over the past 2 years.  draft someone else)

I still believe in……….Edwin Encarnacion.

I am not worried about……….Adam Lind.

Deep Sleeper………Brian Matusz.

Stay far away from………..Jorge Posada.

Temper Your Expectations…………Adam Jones.

Oldie but a goodie……..Carlos Pena.

Enjoy the Explosion……..Matt Wieters.

Now or Never………….Nick Markakis.

Regression is Likely…….Aaron Hill and Jason Bartlett.

Pay the Extra buck or three………..Robinson Cano.

Fantasy MVP:  Miguel Cabrera (could be a great value if he slips past the top 8 in your draft)

Fantasy Cy Young:  Zack Greinke (last year’s peripherals were so good even a little regression would be just fine)

Breakout Performer (Stick):  Gordon Beckham (bombs and bags; awesome hitters park)

Breakout Perfomer (Arm):  Max Scherzer (here come the strikeouts)

Comeback Hitter:  Carlos Quentin (last year at this time he was very highly coveted)

Comeback Pitcher:  Francisco Liriano (I feel like 2006 wasn’t too long ago)

Bust Hitter:  Shin-Soo Choo (too many strikeouts and is being way overvalued)

Bust Pitcher:  Justin Verlander (jumped over 3 k’s/9 and improved over 1.5 BB/9.  Huge  jump in innings)

I still believe in…..J.J. Hardy.

I am not worried about….Alex Rios.

The deep sleeer I am targeting…..Luke Hochevar.

I will stay far away from……Johnny Damon.

Temper your expectations………Asdrubal Cabrera.

An oldie but a goodie………….Michael Cuddyer.

Enjoy the Explosion………Scott Baker.

Now or Never………..Alex Gordon.

Regression is Likely………..Joe Mauer.

Pay the Extra Buck………..Billy Butler.

Fantasy MVP:  Troy Tulowitzki (This is the year he stays injury free and doesn’t have a month where he hits about .130.  Superb 2nd round pick)

Fantasy Cy Young:  Tim Lincecum (This is Lincecum’s until someone takes it from him)

Breakout Performer (Stick):  Carlos Gonzalez (I believe 20-20 is a modest projection.  The potential-performance gap closes in 2010)

Breakout Performer (Arm):  Johnathan Sanchez (Sanchez becomes 2nd best starter on the Giants this season)

Comeback Hitter:  Kelly Johnson (2009 wasn’t as bad as advertised.  the new ballpark will help)

Comeback Pitcher:  Chad Billingsley (too much filth to not succeed.  he puts it all together in 10)

Bust Hitter:  Mark Reynolds (If you draft him expecting levels even close to last season, you are going to be sorely disappointed)

Bust Pitcher:  Edwin Jackson (doesn’t miss enough bats for my liking.  new ballpark is a launching pad.  overrated)

I still believe in….James Loney.

I am not worried about……Conor Jackson.

The deep sleeper I am targeting……Luke Gregerson.

I will stay far away from………Russell Martin.

Temper your expectations on……Pablo Sandoval.

Oldie but a goodie…….Adam LaRoche.

Enjoy the Explosion……Andre Ethier.

Now or Never……..Chris Young (both of them)

Regression Is Likely……Matt Cain.

Pay the Extra Buck……..Ubaldo Jimenez.

Fantasy MVP:  Hanley Ramirez (tough call between him and Utley but going with Han-Ram)

Fantasy Cy Young:  Roy Halladay (Doc will love life in the NL)

Breakout Performer (Stick):  Jason Heyward (believe the hype and get him this year before he becomes a 25 or 30 dollar player)

Breakout Performer (Arm):  Ricky Nolasco (sure its a trendy pick but Nolasco’s peripherals are better than Sabathia’s; with some luck, he’s a top 10 pitcher)

Comeback Hitter:  David Wright (write 2009 off)

Comeback Pitcher:  Cole Hamels (he makes up for poor 09 in 2010)

Bust Hitter:  Raul Ibanez (his post-ASB numbers have to make you weary)

Bust Pitcher:  Jair Jurrjens (stars would have to align for me to draft him)

I still believe in….Dan Uggla.

I am not worried about…..Jason Bay.

The deep sleeper I am targeting……Chris Volstad.

I will stay far away from……Francisco Rodriguez.

Temper Your Expectations on………….Ryan Zimmerman.

Oldie but a goodie………….Adam Dunn.

Enjoy the Explosion………….Brian McCann.

Now or Never………….Elijah Dukes.

Regression is Likely………….Tommy Hanson.

Pay the Extra buck or 3………..Josh Johnson.

Fantasy MVP:  Albert Pujols (no brainer)

Fantasy Cy Young:  Yovani Gallardo (when the walks come down, look out)

Breakout Performer (Stick):  Jay Bruce (Think 35 bombs)

Breakout Performer (Arm):  Homer Bailey (not many good candidates in this division)

Comeback Hitter:  Corey Hart (i wear my sunglasses at night)

Comeback Pitcher:  Roy Oswalt (i think the little guy has another solid one in him)

Bust Hitter:  Derrek Lee (not buying last years power surge and he doesn’t run anymore)

Bust Pitcher:  Chris Carpenter (I just can’t see him staying healthy and he’s not elite in K’s anyway)

I still believe in….Aaron Harang.

I’m not worried about….Trevor Hoffman.

The deep sleeper I am targeting……Felipe Paulino.

I will stay far away from……Francisco Cordero.

Temper your expectations on……Colby Rasmus.

Oldie but a goodie……Octavio Dotel.

Enjoy the explosion…….Hunter Pence.

Now or Never………Lastings Milledge.

Regression is Likely…………Michael Bourne.

Pay the Extra 5 dollars………Ryan Braun.

You could be celebrating like Mike if your leaguemates decide to pass on Cuddyer.

It is likely that Michael Cuddyer will not be a very highly coveted fantasy outfielder in 2010 because of some uncertainties moving foward.  Many will view Cuddy’s robust 09 as having the “Ludwick Look” and will forecast huge regression for the upcoming season.  I am not going to bet the farm on Cuddyer repeating his career best season, but I will however tell you that there is plenty of value to be had here.

First off, Cuddyer was only 1 of 7 outfielders to surpass 30 bombs and both 90 runs scored and 90 runs batted in a year ago.  The elite company who share that (Braun, Lind, Bay, Werth, Ethier, Ibanez) should have him sniffing #2 outfield status.  I do not believe in drafting Cuddyer like a #2, but view him as more than solid number 3.

Haters will say:

Cuddyer will struggle in his new digs as it is outside and he loved his home cooking at the Metrodome where he slugged .555 with 18 bombs a season ago.

I will say:

No one has any clue how a new ballpark is going to play, but I will say that it is likely the new Target Field can be no worse for hitters than the Metrodome has been over the last few seasons.  It has been falsely nicknamed the Homerdome in years past and has actually favored the pitchers historically.  The fence in left is actually 16 feet closer to home plate at Target than it was at the old Metrodome.  This should play nicely for the pull happy Cuddyer.

Haters will say:

Cuddyer’s 09 was out of left field and has to be the outlier in his last 4 seasons.  His homerun/flyball rate spiked along with his fly ball rate and is the main reason for his explosion.  It cannot be repeated.

I will say:

Cuddyer had a solid 2006 season when he hit 24 homers and drove in 109.  He was being viewed as an up and comer before disappointing the following year with a modest 16 and 81 before bottoming out in 2008, slugging .370 in 249 at bats.  On the surface, it seemed Michael was on a downward spiral.  Looking closer, 2007 was a bump in the road and 2008 was an anomoly when you consider he battled several injuries throughout the abbreviated season.

Haters will say:

But seriously, you cannot be talking me into Michael Cuddyer.

I will conclude by saying:

Michael Cuddyer is currently being drafting about 100 picks after LA boy Andre Ethier.  Ethier should be the more targeted outfielder, but looking at their 2009 season the gap shouldn’t be nearly that large.  They were categorically the same player a season ago (Cuddyer actually hit more homers and scored more runs).  Cuddyer is sandwiched in a superb lineup between Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Jason Kubel.  I envision Gardy keeping Cuddy in the 5 spot the entire season to break up the portsiders.  I love Ethier this season but cannot ignore the fact that he couldn’t hit his ass against lefties and plays in a pitcher’s paradise (even though he killed it at Chavez last year).  On the flip side, Cuddyer had an OPS of 1.014 against lefties and will chip in a handful of steals to go with his strong counting numbers.  Ethier is never going to be a plus in batting average until he solves the quagmire of the left-handed pitcher.  Cuddyer’s BA won’t hurt you.

Stick to your guns and NEVER pay for the career year.  But when your leaguemates view Cuddyer as an afterthought because his 2009 came seemingly out of nowhere, pounce on Cuddyer in round 12 or for around 10 bones in your auction.  He will keep it Midwest, grab his hardhat, and punch the clock for your fantasy squad.

The Final Line Will Say:  .274-26 HR-94 RBI-5 SB-86 R

Look for Matt Kemp to go flying up draft boards this winter.

1. Albert Pujols-1B   StL

Pujols should be #1 no matter what Mozeliak and the Cardinals do this winter.

2. Alex Rodriguez-3B NYY

That ballpark makes me feel like A-Rod is back in Texas.

3. Hanley Ramirez-SS  Fla

If Hanley falls past 3 you are getting a steal.

4. Ryan Braun-OF Mil

Braun goes 32-114-20-113-.320 in an off year.  Ridiculous.  He hits 45 bombs next year.

5. Chase Utley-2B Phi

Great park, lineup and a scarce position.  More of the same for Chut.

6. Matt Kemp-OF  LAD

Feels weird putting him this high but just imagine where his numbers would be hitting somewhere in the middle of the lineup all year long. 

7. Tim Lincecum-SP  SF

Tough to take a pitcher this early, but its Lincecum.  Its awesome to own him.

8. Miguel Cabrera-1B  Det

Miggy’s going to be extremely undervalued in 2010.

9. Ian Kinsler-2B  Tex

This is not too early for Kinsler.  He’s a 30-30 middle infielder who will see his average go up into the .280s with some better luck.

10. Mark Teixeira-1B NYY

This doesn’t appear to be the year hung up at the end of the draft.  Lots of options here.

Honorable Mention:

Carl Crawford–you can take him but if you do you obviously haven’t drafted him in the 1st round before.

Prince Fielder–I don’t like players coming off career seasons.

Joe Mauer–Call me a skeptic.  I thought Mauer was too early years before in the 5th round.  Mauer still isnt a 1st rounder to me.

David Wright–Will be undervalued but last years quirky season (extremely lucky; few homers; concussed) has me a bit worried.

Mark Reynolds–Never pay for a career year.  Never.

James Loney was out.

Or so we thought.

The 9th inning was a complete nightmare and exposed the Cardinals shaky bullpen in just a few minutes.  The task at hand just got significantly more difficult as the Cardinals fly east and attempt to extend the series to Sunday.

I am realistic.  The Cardinals chances of winning the series are slim.  However, I remember the 2002 Division Series out in Arizona.  Randy Johnson.  Curt Schilling.  Tough to beat in a short series.  The Cardinals roughed up Johnson in Game 1 and then won in a pitcher’s duel in Game 2 over Schilling.  Does this sound familiar?  As a Cardinals fan, I really felt the pressure to win the series in 3 games because of how tough Johnson and Schilling would be to beat again.

The Dodgers have to feel that pressure.  And if not, they will Sunday.

I look for the Cardinals to win game 3 rather easily behind Joel Pineiro (2.76 ERA at Busch), who has had success against LA this season (8 ip, 1 ER).  LA counters with below average starter Vicente Padilla.

TLR should come back with Carpenter on short rest Sunday and if they happen to still be alive heading back west, Adam Wainwright will be on regular rest for the all or nothing deciding Game 5.

Obviously, the Dodgers do not want that to be the case.

During the regular season, Chris Carpenter gave up 4 or more runs just 3 times.  In his 3 starts following the 4 or more earnies, he compiled a 1.23 ERA and the Cardinals won all 3 games.  Adam Wainwright’s outing at Chavez Ravine yesterday speaks for itself and I see him having a similar game out in LA on Tuesday.

If he gets the chance.

Here are my playoff picks.  I made them Tuesday.

Colorado over Philadelphia in 5.

St. Louis over Los Angeles in 4.

New York over Minnesota in 4.

Anaheim over Boston in 5.

NLCS

St. Louis over Colorado in 7.

ALCS

Anaheim over New York in 6.

World Series

Anaheim over St. Louis in 6.

The Phillies are officially in the post-season and I can’t wait for the media attention concerning Brad Lidge’s role in October.  After the B-Man came in to protect a SEVEN RUN LEAD, WITH 2 OUTS, AND NO ONE ON BASE on Wednesday, his ERA dropped to a pristine 7.34 in 57.2 innings.  He makes Rocky Biddle and Shawn Chacon seem competent.  Lidge is blowing away Chacon’s 35 save, 7.11 ERA, 1.94 WHIP season in 2004 in terms of awfulness.  Forget the talk of Lidge’s role out of the pen come next week, this guy shouldn’t even make the post-season roster.  He obviously cannot close out games in the 9th.  He is not going to all of the sudden become magical in the 7th and 8th either.  So if he cannot be trusted in a set up role for your ballclub, what does he bring to the table out of the bullpen?  He is not a long guy and you don’t have time in the playoffs to work on “confidence” and “mechanics”.

I remember seeing him in the 2004 playoffs and thinking the Cardinals couldn’t score off of him if he threw 10 innings in one game of relief.  Last season, he put together arguably the best run by a closer in history.  This year?  He cannot be used with any game on the line.  This goes without saying, but Ryan Madson has to be the finisher in the 9th and perhaps the 8th and 9th.

I hope the NL playoffs comes down to a Lidge-Pujols matchup with the series on the line.  Charlie Manuel has done great things in Philadelphia but if he lets that happen he should check job postings in Houston and Cleveland.