You could be celebrating like Mike if your leaguemates decide to pass on Cuddyer.

It is likely that Michael Cuddyer will not be a very highly coveted fantasy outfielder in 2010 because of some uncertainties moving foward.  Many will view Cuddy’s robust 09 as having the “Ludwick Look” and will forecast huge regression for the upcoming season.  I am not going to bet the farm on Cuddyer repeating his career best season, but I will however tell you that there is plenty of value to be had here.

First off, Cuddyer was only 1 of 7 outfielders to surpass 30 bombs and both 90 runs scored and 90 runs batted in a year ago.  The elite company who share that (Braun, Lind, Bay, Werth, Ethier, Ibanez) should have him sniffing #2 outfield status.  I do not believe in drafting Cuddyer like a #2, but view him as more than solid number 3.

Haters will say:

Cuddyer will struggle in his new digs as it is outside and he loved his home cooking at the Metrodome where he slugged .555 with 18 bombs a season ago.

I will say:

No one has any clue how a new ballpark is going to play, but I will say that it is likely the new Target Field can be no worse for hitters than the Metrodome has been over the last few seasons.  It has been falsely nicknamed the Homerdome in years past and has actually favored the pitchers historically.  The fence in left is actually 16 feet closer to home plate at Target than it was at the old Metrodome.  This should play nicely for the pull happy Cuddyer.

Haters will say:

Cuddyer’s 09 was out of left field and has to be the outlier in his last 4 seasons.  His homerun/flyball rate spiked along with his fly ball rate and is the main reason for his explosion.  It cannot be repeated.

I will say:

Cuddyer had a solid 2006 season when he hit 24 homers and drove in 109.  He was being viewed as an up and comer before disappointing the following year with a modest 16 and 81 before bottoming out in 2008, slugging .370 in 249 at bats.  On the surface, it seemed Michael was on a downward spiral.  Looking closer, 2007 was a bump in the road and 2008 was an anomoly when you consider he battled several injuries throughout the abbreviated season.

Haters will say:

But seriously, you cannot be talking me into Michael Cuddyer.

I will conclude by saying:

Michael Cuddyer is currently being drafting about 100 picks after LA boy Andre Ethier.  Ethier should be the more targeted outfielder, but looking at their 2009 season the gap shouldn’t be nearly that large.  They were categorically the same player a season ago (Cuddyer actually hit more homers and scored more runs).  Cuddyer is sandwiched in a superb lineup between Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Jason Kubel.  I envision Gardy keeping Cuddy in the 5 spot the entire season to break up the portsiders.  I love Ethier this season but cannot ignore the fact that he couldn’t hit his ass against lefties and plays in a pitcher’s paradise (even though he killed it at Chavez last year).  On the flip side, Cuddyer had an OPS of 1.014 against lefties and will chip in a handful of steals to go with his strong counting numbers.  Ethier is never going to be a plus in batting average until he solves the quagmire of the left-handed pitcher.  Cuddyer’s BA won’t hurt you.

Stick to your guns and NEVER pay for the career year.  But when your leaguemates view Cuddyer as an afterthought because his 2009 came seemingly out of nowhere, pounce on Cuddyer in round 12 or for around 10 bones in your auction.  He will keep it Midwest, grab his hardhat, and punch the clock for your fantasy squad.

The Final Line Will Say:  .274-26 HR-94 RBI-5 SB-86 R

Look for Matt Kemp to go flying up draft boards this winter.

1. Albert Pujols-1B   StL

Pujols should be #1 no matter what Mozeliak and the Cardinals do this winter.

2. Alex Rodriguez-3B NYY

That ballpark makes me feel like A-Rod is back in Texas.

3. Hanley Ramirez-SS  Fla

If Hanley falls past 3 you are getting a steal.

4. Ryan Braun-OF Mil

Braun goes 32-114-20-113-.320 in an off year.  Ridiculous.  He hits 45 bombs next year.

5. Chase Utley-2B Phi

Great park, lineup and a scarce position.  More of the same for Chut.

6. Matt Kemp-OF  LAD

Feels weird putting him this high but just imagine where his numbers would be hitting somewhere in the middle of the lineup all year long. 

7. Tim Lincecum-SP  SF

Tough to take a pitcher this early, but its Lincecum.  Its awesome to own him.

8. Miguel Cabrera-1B  Det

Miggy’s going to be extremely undervalued in 2010.

9. Ian Kinsler-2B  Tex

This is not too early for Kinsler.  He’s a 30-30 middle infielder who will see his average go up into the .280s with some better luck.

10. Mark Teixeira-1B NYY

This doesn’t appear to be the year hung up at the end of the draft.  Lots of options here.

Honorable Mention:

Carl Crawford–you can take him but if you do you obviously haven’t drafted him in the 1st round before.

Prince Fielder–I don’t like players coming off career seasons.

Joe Mauer–Call me a skeptic.  I thought Mauer was too early years before in the 5th round.  Mauer still isnt a 1st rounder to me.

David Wright–Will be undervalued but last years quirky season (extremely lucky; few homers; concussed) has me a bit worried.

Mark Reynolds–Never pay for a career year.  Never.

James Loney was out.

Or so we thought.

The 9th inning was a complete nightmare and exposed the Cardinals shaky bullpen in just a few minutes.  The task at hand just got significantly more difficult as the Cardinals fly east and attempt to extend the series to Sunday.

I am realistic.  The Cardinals chances of winning the series are slim.  However, I remember the 2002 Division Series out in Arizona.  Randy Johnson.  Curt Schilling.  Tough to beat in a short series.  The Cardinals roughed up Johnson in Game 1 and then won in a pitcher’s duel in Game 2 over Schilling.  Does this sound familiar?  As a Cardinals fan, I really felt the pressure to win the series in 3 games because of how tough Johnson and Schilling would be to beat again.

The Dodgers have to feel that pressure.  And if not, they will Sunday.

I look for the Cardinals to win game 3 rather easily behind Joel Pineiro (2.76 ERA at Busch), who has had success against LA this season (8 ip, 1 ER).  LA counters with below average starter Vicente Padilla.

TLR should come back with Carpenter on short rest Sunday and if they happen to still be alive heading back west, Adam Wainwright will be on regular rest for the all or nothing deciding Game 5.

Obviously, the Dodgers do not want that to be the case.

During the regular season, Chris Carpenter gave up 4 or more runs just 3 times.  In his 3 starts following the 4 or more earnies, he compiled a 1.23 ERA and the Cardinals won all 3 games.  Adam Wainwright’s outing at Chavez Ravine yesterday speaks for itself and I see him having a similar game out in LA on Tuesday.

If he gets the chance.

 

Here are my playoff picks.  I made them Tuesday.

Colorado over Philadelphia in 5.

St. Louis over Los Angeles in 4.

New York over Minnesota in 4.

Anaheim over Boston in 5.

NLCS

St. Louis over Colorado in 7.

ALCS

Anaheim over New York in 6.

World Series

Anaheim over St. Louis in 6.

The Phillies are officially in the post-season and I can’t wait for the media attention concerning Brad Lidge’s role in October.  After the B-Man came in to protect a SEVEN RUN LEAD, WITH 2 OUTS, AND NO ONE ON BASE on Wednesday, his ERA dropped to a pristine 7.34 in 57.2 innings.  He makes Rocky Biddle and Shawn Chacon seem competent.  Lidge is blowing away Chacon’s 35 save, 7.11 ERA, 1.94 WHIP season in 2004 in terms of awfulness.  Forget the talk of Lidge’s role out of the pen come next week, this guy shouldn’t even make the post-season roster.  He obviously cannot close out games in the 9th.  He is not going to all of the sudden become magical in the 7th and 8th either.  So if he cannot be trusted in a set up role for your ballclub, what does he bring to the table out of the bullpen?  He is not a long guy and you don’t have time in the playoffs to work on “confidence” and “mechanics”.

I remember seeing him in the 2004 playoffs and thinking the Cardinals couldn’t score off of him if he threw 10 innings in one game of relief.  Last season, he put together arguably the best run by a closer in history.  This year?  He cannot be used with any game on the line.  This goes without saying, but Ryan Madson has to be the finisher in the 9th and perhaps the 8th and 9th.

I hope the NL playoffs comes down to a Lidge-Pujols matchup with the series on the line.  Charlie Manuel has done great things in Philadelphia but if he lets that happen he should check job postings in Houston and Cleveland.

Since AK’s 0-6 performance on 9/9, he has hit in 7 straight producing 7 rbis and 7 runs over that span (.548 batting average). His average has risen to .291 to go along with a solid 11 homers and 19 steals on the season. For those of you who ignored the middle infield position, or drafted goats such as JJ Hardy or Mike Aviles, he has been a nice little find here in 2009. The swiss army knife of position eligibility doesn’t hurt either, especially at this point in the season when you are just looking for warm bodies. You have to ride out the hot hand and hope AK can stay en fuego for 14 more days.

 

Turning the page into September, its time to get serious about picking MVP winners and such.  Here are JV’s selections.

American League Cy Young

1. Zack Greinke, KC

190.1 IP, 13-8, 202 K, 40 BB, 1.08 WHIP, 2.32 ERA

Greinke catapulted ahead of the AL Cy Young pack with a two start week that featured a 1 hit shutout and a career high 15 strikeout game.  Now at 13 victories, the Cy is Greink’s to lose.  If he can find a way to 16 wins, he is a lock to bring home the hardware.

2. Justin Verlander, DET

189 IP, 15-7, 215 K, 53 BB, 1.17 WHIP, 3.38 ERA

Verlander is here because of the high win and strikeout totals.  He really has been great every time out and has been the main reason why Detroit is in a position to head back to the post-season.  Verlander will probably need to win 20 to win the award.  However, could you really give the Cy Young to Verlander when Greinke’s ERA is a full run better?

3. Felix Hernandez, SEA

185.1 IP, 13-5, 179 K, 55 BB, 1.18 WHIP, 2.77 ERA

It seems like we have been waiting forever, but King Felix has finally put it all together in 2009.  If he can get the ERA down in the 2.5 range and get to 18 wins, he could edge out Greinke.

apologies to:  CC Sabathia (high ERA), Roy Halladay (struggled since trade deadline), Josh Beckett (not sure why he was in the conversation anyway)

National League Cy Young

1. Tim Lincecum, SF

193.1 IP, 13-4, 222 K, 54 BB, 1.03 WHIP, 2.33 ERA

I still put Lincecum ahead of the rest because of the K’s and WHIP.  Just ridiculous.  He may need to win 17 to hang on, but if the season ended today, i would vote Tim.

2. Adam Wainwright, StL

193 IP, 16-7, 164 K, 57 BB, 1.20 WHIP, 2.47 ERA

Waino has been the most consistent starter in baseball and comes in at #2 because of it.  He has thrown 6 or more innings in 26 straight starts.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 13 straight.  He has allowed 0 or 1 earned run in exactly half (14) of his 28 starts.  He needs to win 20 games and keep the ERA in the mid to high 2’s to be named the Cy.

3. Dan Haren, Ari

188 IP, 13-8, 180 K, 29 BB, 0.94 WHIP, 2.78 WHIP

One could argue that Haren has been the best pitcher this season because of the K:BB ratio alone.  Like Greinke, he has found a way to win 13 games on a horrible team and voters should look past that when filling out their ballots.  Haren probably needs to win 4 more games and have those in front of him falter to be named the winner.

Apologies to:  Chris Carpenter (the 6 missed starts with injuries has to be a factor here), Javier Vazquez (11 wins hurts), Matt Cain (hasn’t won in last 7 starts)

American League MVP

1. Joe Mauer, MIN

 .367 BA/.435 OBP/.608 SLG/

25 HR, 79 RBI, 77 R

Even with missing four weeks at the beginning of the season, Mauer is ahead of a flawed group for AL MVP.  The power spike to go along with an unreal BA and the demanding position he plays makes this his to lose.  Its not really that close either.

2. Miguel Cabrera, DET

.335 BA/.399 OBP/.565 SLG

27 HR, 82 RBI, 77 R

I’m not real sure why he hasn’t been getting more publicity.  Detroit is in the race and his numbers have been there all season.  I’m predicting a huge September that will get his name thrown out there some more.

3. Kendry Morales, LAA

.311 BA/.355 OBP/.593 SLG

30 HR, 94 RBI, 71 R

This may be a bit high for Morales, but I feel that credit should be given where credit is due.  With the injuries and scuffling this team has been through, Morales has been the one constant.  His break out season deserves some recognition, especially the position he has put the Angels in.

apologies to:  Mark Teixeira (.283 BA isn’t going to cut it), Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano (they just haven’t done enough), Michael Young (not really a candidate just pointing out the great year that he has had), Aaron Hill and Adam Lind (these are not your older brother’s Jays)

National League MVP

1. Albert Pujols, StL

.320 BA/.444 OBP/.669 SLG

41 HR, 110 RBI, 102 R

Has been the front runner all season and has the award all but wrapped up.

2. Hanley Ramirez, FLA

.359 BA/.422 OBP/.562 SLG

19 HR, 85 RBI, 82 R

Hanley is having an unworldly season and despite Pujols’s dominance, dare I say that Hanley has a chance?  A monster September and Florida making the post-season would be a scenario where Han-Ram wins his first MVP award.  It also helps that he plays shortstop.

3. Prince Fielder, MIL

.300 BA/.412 OBP/.594 SLG

36 HR, 119 RBI, 80 R

Prince has begun the trend of on year, off year in his short career.  He is a distant third for the award and I don’t envision the possibility of him even finishing second.  With a mediocre September, he could even finish outside the top 5.

apologies to:  Mark Reynolds (bad team and blah BA), Matt Kemp (imagine the season he would have if he would hit higher in the order), Ryan Braun (has been steady and solid but nothing amazing), Chase Utley and Ryan Howard (just haven’t done enough), Troy Tulowitzki (has turned it up and has the Rox ready for the stretch run)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Double I is back.  Hunter was having a career year until his season was derailed for 5 weeks on July 7th with a strained adductor muscle.  Hunter is hitting .307 with 17 homers 67 rbi 57 R and 13 SB in only 296 AB for the year.  Hopefully his time on the shelf didn’t erase your memories of Torii’s robust 2009.  He’s back just in time to be a very solid No. 3 outfielder in mixed leagues and have a say in who wins your league championship.  But fantasy owners beware, he has been known to suppress the abilities of those around him.

 

Well J.A. just got finished dusting off the Colorado Rockies.  His reward?  Probably a trip to the bullpen so the Phillies can add PEDRO MARTINEZ to the rotation.  Happ has struggled with command at times here in his rookie season, but has shown consistency as a youngster, yielding more than 3 earned just 3 times in 13 starts.    His last 8 starts have been especially effective as he has completed 58 innings and struck out 45 to only 9 walks.  Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee are not leaving the rotation.  Joe Blanton has had a very quiet awesome season and is the only right hander in the starting staff.  He is a lock to stay as well.  Jaime Moyer is a dinosaur with a 5.55 ERA.  I realize he is chasing Cy Young in career wins, but he cannot hold Happy’s pitch chart.

Happ 115 IP, 86 K, 37 BB, 1.12 WHIP, 2.72 ERA, .221 BAA

Moyer 118.1 IP, 68 K, 37 BB, 1.47 WHIP, 5.55 ERA, .293 BAA

Happ is not a garden variety lefty.  I’m thinking of recent blue chip lefties that have been called up in the last few years.  Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw, and Jon Lester….they have all fared pretty well.  I believe he has that pedigree.  He reminds me of a young Mark Mulder, sans the grounders.  He is not a big strikeout guy and rarely throws the hammer.  He does pitch in a treacherous homer happy park and is a fly ball guy.  Regardless, we are talking about a guy that should throw the 4th playoff game for the Fightins’ this year.  Its not close either.

But if I had to guess, I would say there is a 1% chance Happ remains in the rotation and both Pedro and Moyer are in it.

The Bottom Line:

1. Managers/GMs are stupid

2. The Phillies should not have signed Pedro

 

image from cbssports.com.

I hate the current set up of the MLB.  We have a division with six teams and we have a division of four.  We have an uneven number of AL teams (14) to NL teams (16).  All baseball purists will tell you that expansion teams are a bad idea because it waters down Major League Baseball.  You won’t hear that from me.  I would love to add two more AL teams.  That means 2 more ballparks to go see, 2 more teams to analyze, and more fantasy players to go around.  Let’s just say that in a perfect world Las Vegas gets a team as well as New Orleans.  Here is the set up I would propose if I had the power.

4 divisions of 4 teams in each league.  No wild card winner.  You have to win a division title to play in October.  No more interleague play.  It was neat a few years ago.  It has run its course.

AL East–New York Yanks, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore

AL West–Seattle, Los Angeles Angels, Oakland, Las Vegas*

AL Central–Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland

AL South–Tampa Bay, Texas, New Orleans*, Kansas City

NL East–Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, New York Mets, Washington

NL Central–St. Louis, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee, Colorado

NL West–Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego, San Francisco, Arizona

NL South–Atlanta, Florida, Houston, Cincinnati

*expansion clubs

 

are you a fan or no?

When it comes to baseball, nothing is more demoralizing than blowing leads and losing games.  Tampa Bay struggled in April and May to find an indentity with their bullpen.  Troy Percival, who may have been their worst reliever, was closing out ball games in the beginning.  They tried Dan Wheeler.  Maddon gave Balfour a shot.  Joe Nelson was part of the mix.  Dan Wheeler had a little experience at the back end.  Jason Isringhausen was even brought out of retirement briefly to blow some games.  We finally called it a revolving door, and a poor one at that.  We had a six headed monster at closer.

As we turn the page into the second half of the season (the real second half begins now), the Rays have settled on their best reliever, J.P. Howell, as the finisher of the 2008 AL Champions.  In Howell’s last 9 appearances, he has 3 wins and 4 saves.  He would of had another save Monday, but Maddon gave JP the night off because he had been worked like a rented mule over the weekend.  He hasn’t allowed a run since May 29th or an earned run since May 23rd.  He struck out more than a batter per inning in 08 and had peripherals of 2.22 and 1.13.  Don’t be fooled by the 5 blown saves, they were early in the year when JP was inheriting runners in the middle innings.  Howell is the clear-cut option for saves moving forward for a team that is the hottest in baseball and boasts a top pitching staff. 

Howell’s days of starting games for the Royals and even the Rays a back in 07 seem like light years ago.  JP has been a great pitcher over the last 2 seasons and now is a commodity because he is shaking hands with the catcher after victories.  He should be owned in all leagues.