Sorry for so few posts over the last couple weeks.  I was out of town and unavailiable.  I did however witness Ryan Howard’s 200th career homer at Land Shark Stadium with 459 other people.  On to business…

 

The MLB trade deadline is vastly approaching.  That also means your fantasy league’s trade deadline is on the horizon.  Here are some thoughts I have bouncing around in my head.

Randy Wolf -despite a paltry 4-4 record, Wolf has been superb playing for Mannywood.  He sports a 3.51 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and has a strong 3:1 K:BB ratio.  However, his best ERA and WHIP since 2004 is 4.30 and 1.33.  I’m a big believer in course correction and believe that he will get to about 10 wins, but his ratios will balloon.

J.J. Hardy -has averaged 25 homers and a .280 average in the last two seasons.  He currently sits at 11 bombs and .226.  Pitch a low ball offer to a frustrated owner.  J.J. will make you hardy.

Dan Haren -I know Haren perennially struggles in the 2nd half.  I’ve read about it.  I’ve known it.  However, he is a much better pitcher now than he has ever been.  He K’s 7.6 batters for every one walk.  His WHIP sits at 0.80.  Yeah he pitches in a launching pad and maybe his ratios get to 2.80 and 1.00 by the end of the year.  Even so, I am not dealing him unless I am blown away.  And by blown away I mean a player in the Mark Teixeira fold.

Johnathan Broxton -Broxton has pitched three days in a row, recorded saves in all three, and has been dominant in doing so.  These outings have given fantasy baller’s false hope that the toe will no longer be an issue.  The Dodgers are cruising in the West and Broxton will hit the DL in the coming weeks.  Trade him now at peak value and pick up Ramon Troncoso in the meantime.

Adrian Gonzalez- Gonzo mashed 20 homers the first two months and has done diddly since.  If you have stuck it out with him up to this point, ride the wave home.  He will get hot again and finish with 40 homers.  He is a definite hold.

Derek Lowe- Lowe’s ERAs over the past 4 seasons: 3.61, 3.63, 3.89 and a pristine 3.24 last year.  His WHIPs: 1.25, 1.27, 1.27, and a sparkling 1.13 last year.  He has been an underrated awful in 2009 and I see no reason why he will turn it around.  He’s on pace to strikeout just over 100 hitters after averaging over 140 in the past 4.  He may be worth a $1 bid next year, but I’m avoiding like the plague for the rest of 2009.

Jon Lester -Lester has turned into Steve Carlton over the last two months and I see no reason why it won’t continue.  He is the best left handed pitcher in the AL and has made a huge spike in the K numbers this year.  He has an outside shot at 250 K’s after sitting down a solid 152 in 210 innings last season.  The post-season innings from last year  have not hurt him and feel more than comfortable trotting him out there as your ace for now and beyond.

Adam Wainwright -Like Lester, Waino has turned into more of a punch-out pitcher in 2009.  At his current rate he will rip thru the magical 200 mark while dragging the ERA and WHIP south.  He is the picture perfect #2 pitcher for any fantasy or major league pitching staff.

George Sherrill -with the deadline approaching, he will inevitably be on the move.  Jim Johnson is the handcuff to have here.  Other closers that have a chance of being dealt are Chad Qualls and Matt Capps.  And to a lesser extent Francisco Cordero and Huston Street.  Plan accordingly.

Shane Victorino- I have really felt like Victorino has had a piss-poor year.  His on pace for less than 30 steals and about 10 homers.  He has eclipsed both those numbers in 2007 and 2008.  His average has been great but he hasn’t done much else.  I’m rooting for a blah second half so I can snag him cheap next year.

Brandon Wood- I’m starting to really hate the Angels.  This guy has nothing left to prove at Salt Lake as he has been a man among boys there for a few years.  He can play multiple positions and is currently being blocked by slaps like Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis.  Vlad Guerrero and Torii Hunter are currently on the shelf and he still can’t crack the lineup.  Either play this guy every day or trade him for Roy Halladay.  Its not a no brainer on which to do, but how could you do neither????

JV’s All Second Half Team

When evaluating Major League Baseball players, I believe in two ideas. Number one, players will produce the numbers they are supposed to produce. Even with a slow start or bad luck, a player will have a final line that is comparable to his numbers in other seasons. The second idea is that trends exist. Some players are much better at home. Others struggle against left-handed pitching. And some pick up the slack significantly after the all-star break. Below, you will find two lists of players. List one (”Commodities”) is a group of players that are awesome in the second half and a buy low opportunity may exist because of their current numbers. Some may consider them afterthoughts, but I believe they could be hidden gems for teams trying to make a jump in the standings. The second list (”Cornerstones”) is a group of elite players that are also much better post-ASB. These players are typically early round fantasy selections and can carry teams to
a title.

An important note to also keep in mind is that the “1st half” of an MLB season is longer than the “2nd half”. Think 88 games pre-ASB, 74 games post-ASB, with it varying each season.

This article will appear on fantasypros911.com’s great debate this week.  feel free to vote for it there, or just enjoy the article.

Commodities

Catcher–
Ramon Hernandez, CIN

AB R HR RBI SB BA
pre 2387 268 75 349 6 .251
post 1803 228 67 281 2 .276

year to date: .247, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 19 R, 1 SB

Hernandez has struggled in his first season in Cincinnati for a couple of reasons. The first of which is that he’s been asked to play a foreign position with Joey Votto being out and the second is that he is a typically slow starter. The position switch has obviously been a distraction–he has hit .211 as a 1st baseman opposed to .280 behind the dish. With Votto returning and the weather heating up at The Great American Ball Park, expect double digit homers and a solid average from Ramon after the break.

First Base–
Aubrey Huff, BAL

AB R HR RBI SB BA
pre 2507 301 90 354 16 .273
post 2147 322 107 360 9 .302

year to date: .276, 9 HR, 47 RBI, 28 R, 0 SB

Baltimore is building quite the lineup and Aubrey Huff will be hitting right in the middle of it. Huff is significantly better after the Mid-Summer Classic and has hit .302, and .322 after the break in his first two seasons in Baltimore . Youngsters Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold, Matt Weiters will only get better and prototypical second half boom players Melvin Mora and Nick Markakis will help Aubrey generate a .320 average to go with 15 homers and 50 rbis this second half.

Second Base–
Dustin Pedroia, BOS

AB R HR RBI SB BA
pre 899 149 14 100 22 .307
post 625 108 15 68 17 .310

year to date: .286, 2 HR, 28 RBI, 48 R, 12 SB

Pedroia is pretty much a steady player throughout the season, with one small exception: the power. DP’s home run rate spikes during the second half to go along with a consistent batting average. The owner in your league who drafted Pedroia in round 2 is probably way past frustrated. For those of you who are struggling in average, Pedroia is a player to covet looking at his .345 post-ASB batting average from a season ago.

Third Base–
Adrian Beltre, SEA

AB R HR RBI SB BA
pre 3273 409 110 418 56 .261
post 2836 398 137 474 91 .281

year to date: .256, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 33 R, 9 SB

Beltre’s current numbers are right in line with his sluggish first halves of the past. Beltre has averaged 24 homers and 88 rbis in his four season in the Pacific Northwest and I see no reason why he can’t be very close to those numbers when the season ends. That puts him in line for a huge second half. If he is traded to a contender, I see that as a bonus as it will more than likely be in a ballpark much friendlier to hitters and also in a better lineup.

Shortstop–
J.J. Hardy, MIL

AB R HR RBI SB BA
pre 1169 157 43 156 3 .249
post 714 101 27 91 2 .286

year to date: .212, 6 HR, 29 RBI, 32 R, 0 SB

There seemed to be a couple two week stretches last year where Hardy was on a different planet. He is yet to have one of those classic hot streaks this season. Pick him up if you are struggling for a middle infielder or make an offer to an owner who feels like he’s expendable. Owning him for just one of those inevitable hot streaks will definitely be worth it. It could be the difference in your season.

Outfield–
Ryan Ludwick, STL

AB R HR RBI SB BA
pre 737 118 42 136 12 .259
post 609 88 33 109 3 .281

year to date: .240, 10 HR, 36 RBI, 22 R, 3 SB

Many viewed Ludwick would be overvalued in drafts after his coming out party in 2008. Injuries and bad luck have been the obstacle in 2009, judging by his .248 BABIP and stint on the disabled list. Ryno views himself as a .275-25 HR-100 RBI hitter. I believe that he will get there.

Outfield–
Matt Holliday, OAK

AB R HR RBI SB BA
pre 1685 270 66 276 38 .316
post 1216 1216 70 246 36 .314

year to date: .273, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 35 R, 8 SB

It was a trendy pick to for a regression in Matty’s numbers heading out of Coors Field. However, Holliday batted over .300 on the road in both 2007 and 2008 so the low average has to be a surprise. To go with the pedestrian average has been a poor number of big flies. Holliday has homered in the second half at a Ruthian rate. Like Adrian Beltre, a trade before the trade deadline will only help his value. Go and get him.

Outfield–
Chris B. Young, ARI

AB R HR RBI SB BA
pre 886 115 32 95 25 .223
post 599 93 30 86 29 .257

year to date: .204, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 28 R, 11 SB

Krispie’s second half surge has already begun. I guess it almost has to start early for him to finish the year around his career average of .245 (coming into the year). In his last 7 games, Young has hit .435 with 2 homers and 3 steals to go with a 1.000 slugging percentage and an OBP of .552. He said he has made an adjustment with his hands and it has obviously worked. A thing to watch will be a groin injury he sustained this past week in Kansas City , a game in which he reached base in all 5 plate appearances. It is also rare that a player steals more bases in the second half. Take advantage of that.

Utility–
Garrett Atkins, COL

AB R HR RBI SB BA
pre 1435 207 50 223 5 .281
post 1199 172 44 228 3 .303

year to date: .205, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 22 R, 0 SB

Atkins is the ultimate buy low player. You can probably get him for next to nothing or perhaps even find him on your league’s waiver wire. I am concerned about the lack of playing time with the emergence of young stud Ian Stewart, but a trade to a contender ( St. Louis ?) could be on the horizon. Atkins is a much better player after the break and Lady Luck (.216 BABIP) has to course correct.

Starting Pitcher–
Roy Oswalt, HOU

IP REC ERA WHIP K
pre 989 65-48 3.43 1.26 790
post 723 67-20 2.89 1.14 612

year to date: 90.1 IP, 3-4 record, 4.48 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 67 K

If you have ever drafted Oswalt in the past few seasons, you understand that he tests you before the summer months. Oswalt is a notoriously slow starter and always finds himself near the top statistically at the end of the year. Houston has been a completely different ballclub in past seasons after the break. Judging from Roy ’s record post break, its biggest reason is because Oswalt is an absolute Wizard from mid-season to the end of the year. I realize we are far from 2005, but until Oswalt’s other shoe drops after the All-Star Game, I’m taking my chances.

Relief Pitcher–
Brian Fuentes, LAA

IP REC ERA WHIP K S BS
pre 255 8-18 3.73 1.25 281 83 21
post 189 9-11 3.08 1.24 225 51 6

year to date: 23.1 IP, 0-2 record, 4.24 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 26 K, 19 S, 3 BS

Fuentes has been merely average in his move the Junior Circuit (boy, it seems we have those names mixed up). The fact of the matter is the Angels have been an underachieving team here in 2009. John Lackey is beginning to round out into form to go along with 2008 bust out ace Ervin Santana, who has struggled mightily this season. If those two right the ship, the Angels will present save opportunities to Fuentes on a nightly basis. The only difference between this year’s Angels squad and last year’s is the addition of Bobby Abreu and another emerging ace in Jered Weaver. Francisco Rodriguez had 69 save opportunities in 2008. Fuentes could eclipse 50 saves this season.

CORNERSTONES

Catcher–
Victor Martinez, CLE

AB R HR RBI SB BA
pre 1703 238 60 299 0 .295
post 1224 167 40 205 1 .310

year to date: .335, 12 HR, 53 RBI, 48 R, 0 SB

Chief Martinez is having a career season in 2009 and is showing no sign of slowing down. V-Mart should continue his surge, as this is the first season in which he has played 1st more than he has caught. That should keep him fresh in the part of the season in which he has flourished the most. He is even a better second half hitter than All-American Boy Joe Mauer.

First Base–
Mark Teixeira, NYY

AB R HR RBI SB BA
pre 2040 342 115 378 6 .278
post 1622 269 108 353 7 .303

year to date: .286, 20 HR, 55 RBI, 45 R, 0 SB

Teixeira has the reputation of starting slow and finishing fast and everyone noted that when he sputtered out of the gate in April. However, Tex mashed in May and June and is ahead of his career pace up to this point. If he turns into the best hitter on the planet as he has shown in some second halves, he is a lock for 50 homers and has an outside shot of 60 playing in the new bandbox known as Yankee Stadium. 60 homers and an average north of .300 in this day and age really would be remarkable.

Second Base–
Robinson Cano, NYY

AB R HR RBI SB BA
pre 1445 191 34 176 9 .286
post 1051 158 40 175 6 .327

year to date: .309, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 46 R, 3 SB

Cano was a great value pick for those of you who waited on a second baseman in your drafts. The new ballpark has obviously helped, but the real payoff is going to come when Robbie continues squaring balls up after the break as he has done since his arrival into the big leagues. Because of those factors, the only 2 baggers I would select ahead of Cano in mid-season leagues are Chase Utley and Ian Kinsler.

Third Base–
David Wright, NYM

AB R HR RBI SB BA
pre 1585 257 68 278 65 .301
post 1312 248 66 250 45 .325

year to date: .344, 4 HR, 39 RBI, 41 R, 18 SB

Wright’s ascension in the upper-echelon of major league players has been because of the production across the board. His power outage this season has been negated a bit by his lofty average and swiftness on the basepaths. Regardless of the cavernous ballpark and poor home run totals, I cannot imagine a scenario where Wright finishes below 20 homers and I see him more than likely hitting 25+. The return of Jose Reyes will help the RBI totals and you will see a final line of .325-25-110-110-35. Still complaining?

Shortstop–
Troy Tulowitzki , COL

AB R HR RBI SB BA
pre 674 100 22 81 15 .246
post 616 100 21 97 5 .299

year to date: .245, 10 HR, 27 RBI, 33 R, 9 SB

Tulo’s second half prowess speaks for itself. He has already begun the climb, hitting .306 with 5 homers in June. It appears that he has also decided he is a base stealer, which will only helps his value. Tulowitzki will finish the season with a .280 batting average and also find himself in the 20/20 club with good counting numbers. There are better shortstops, but very few that display the spikes in average and production that Tulo does post-ASB.

Outfield–
Carlos Beltran, NYM

AB R HR RBI SB BA
pre 3459 585 149 572 146 .276
post 2497 490 122 455 140 .292

year to date: .333, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 40 R, 11 SB

Like teammate David Wright, Carlos the Cat has seen a rise in average and a modest number of homers moving into the new Citi Field. Beltran’s average will inevitably come down, but should remain north of .300 thanks to his awesome second half track record. He hasn’t hit over .300 since 2003 with the Royals. I see him finishing with over 30 steals, as he has stolen basically the same number of bags in 230 less games after the break.

Outfield–
Nick Markakis, BAL

AB R HR RBI SB BA
pre 1200 181 33 166 21 .287
post 796 138 34 139 11 .317

year to date: .293, 8 HR, 44 RBI, 44 R, 2 SB

Markakis has had a knack for picking up the slack in the second half during his few seasons in the big leagues. His numbers have been very modest here in 09, and I am sensing this as the calm before the storm. Nick the Stick is in one of the most underrated lineups in baseball, that is loaded with power and speed. I’m seeing a .325 average in the second half and him finishing the year with 25+ homers and double digit steals.

Outfield–
Carlos Lee, HOU

AB R HR RBI SB BA
pre 3381 489 171 635 69 .287
post 2498 415 122 408 43 .295

year to date: .305, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 30 R, 2 SB

El Caballo is one of the most consistent hitters in the game and also one that sees a slight uptick in batting average to go with steady power in the second half. He has averaged 32 homers and 110 rbis over the last six seasons, which includes missing 45 games last season after being beaned on the hand. I see no reason why he doesn’t hit on those averages in 2009, to go with a batting average in the mid .290s.

Utility–
Bobby Abreu, LAA

AB R HR RBI SB BA
pre 3756 673 131 616 187 .293
post 2955 529 113 503 146 .308

year to date: .299, 3 HR, 35 RBI, 28 R, 15 SB

Abreu has been a mild disappointment this season because of the poor power totals. He has shown to be a better player in the second half and has never finished with less than 15 homers and 100 rbis since 2002. The power is obviously on the downfall, but I still see a player who will hit double digit homers and have double digit steals from this point forward. If an owner in your league is growingly frustrated, see if you can get him on the cheap.

Starting Pitcher–
Johan Santana, NYM

IP REC ERA WHIP K
pre 918 59-39 3.45 1.15 950
post 714 58-17 2.70 1.05 734

year to date: 89.1 IP, 8-5 record, 3.22 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 97 K

Johan is the ultimate second half pitcher. He goes on streaks during the second half where he is threatening for a shutout to go with double figures in K’s every start. Throw in the fact that his new home ballpark is as big as Yellowstone National, and you have one hell of a horse for an ace.

Relief Pitcher–
Jose Valverde, HOU

IP REC ERA WHIP K S BS
pre 200 9-14 4.13 1.33 247 86 16
post 143 6-4 2.19 0.95 185 60 9

year to date: 12.1 IP, 0-1 record, 3.65 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 4 saves, 2 blown saves

Joey Valgreen has lead the NL saves the last two seasons with 47 and 44 respectively. Like I have said before, Houston is a much better team in the second half and should present a lot of save opportunities for Senor Valverde. I view him as a closer in the upper middle tier and should finish the season with 30+ saves, barring an injury. The buy low window has probably already surpassed, but in mid-season leagues I would have no qualms about Valverde being my number 1 closer.